The latest drought monitor indicates that as of Apr. 19, three-quarters of the United States is facing some level of drought or dryness, with 60% categorized from D1 moderate to D4 exceptional drought—the highest level since November 2022.
This development raises concerns for agriculture and communities across the country as widespread dry conditions continue to affect soil moisture and crop prospects. According to historical data, drought coverage has only surpassed the 60% mark about thirty times in recent years, most notably during the severe droughts of 2012 and 2013.
Data from NASA’s root zone moisture map show that soil in regions such as the eastern Corn Belt, Southeast, and western Plains is especially dry compared to historical averages. Forecasts suggest these areas may not receive significant rainfall for several weeks, which could cause further expansion and intensification of the drought.
Eric Snodgrass, senior science fellow at Nutrien Ag Solutions, said: “The Drought Monitor has been roughly 80% now for over a month. Remember, that’s using all drought categories, but 80% abnormally dry to exceptionally dry is a big area that’s coming out of a winter and spring with drought concerns going into summer.”
Snodgrass also noted severe deficits in Arkansas: “The Southeast is enduring one of the driest springs it has had historically going back to the late 1800s. The drought there is a rough picture,” he said. “The high plains are absolutely bone dry. Big dust storms. Nebraska’s really taking a beating. They’re pre-irrigating the crop.”
Winter wheat production is being hit hard; currently, about two-thirds (68%) of winter wheat acres are under drought stress nationwide while only one-third (34%) are rated good or excellent condition nationally—Texas reports more than half its hard red winter wheat crop as poor or very poor.
“I think there’s going to be a lot of lost acres. They’re waiting on rain that now if it comes, it’s almost too late,” Snodgrass said. He added: “I was talking to a grower on the tip of the Red River, and he said he’s already had the insurance adjuster out and was looking at 1 bu. to 19 bu. yields. The crop is gone.”
Looking ahead for relief prospects this season amid ongoing dryness concerns tied partly to weather patterns like El Nino transitions Snodgrass stated: “I think we’re going to see rains relieving the drought pressure — not alleviating but helping in the Plains and in the Southeast in May.” However he cautioned any relief may not last through summer.
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