Profit margins are proving difficult to achieve for American farmers in 2026, as growers face increasing competition from Brazil, Argentina, and other countries along with unpredictable trade deals. According to a June 2 report, more than 86% of corn and soybean farmers are concerned about global competition from South America. Ben Brown, an agricultural economist at the University of Missouri, said the current period is marked by especially tight financial margins in the United States.
Brazil has rapidly expanded its agricultural production over recent years but is now experiencing a slowdown due to rising expenses and tighter margins. Grant Gardner, an agricultural economist at the University of Kentucky, said that acreage growth in Brazil is slowing this year as international competitors face similar challenges with input prices such as nitrogen fertilizer. A May survey conducted by Farm Journal’s Ag Economists Monthly Monitor found economists divided on whether Brazil’s soybean expansion will slow significantly or continue due to favorable currency exchange rates.
Gardner said that structural safety nets in the United States—such as crop insurance provided by the Risk Management Agency and farm programs—give American growers some income-smoothing abilities not available to their Brazilian counterparts. Brown explained that while Brazil enjoys lower land and labor costs overall, it faces high interest rates and relies heavily on imported fertilizer: “They have a lower cost structure, but it’s because of land and labor. It’s not because of the input costs.” Brown predicted mounting economic pressure could lead to reduced Brazilian production next winter, potentially opening export opportunities for U.S. producers.
Meanwhile, U.S. farmers are monitoring China’s promise to buy $29 billion worth of American agricultural goods excluding soybeans—a move economists view cautiously rather than optimistically. Sixty percent called it “moderately positive” in May’s survey; none described it as highly positive due to uncertainties around implementation and product mix limitations without soybeans included.
Looking ahead into 2026-27 planting decisions, Brown expects corn will maintain its lead in total U.S. acres with some increase in soybean plantings narrowing the gap between crops. Gardner anticipates regional shifts toward more soybeans in certain areas while marginal ground may be left idle nationally.
Despite ongoing volatility and high input costs through at least 2027, according to surveyed economists’ feedback, Gardner remains somewhat optimistic: “From the corn and soybean perspective, you’re not at a bad price right now… That’s exactly when you want to lock some in—before the market shows you whether its next move is up or down.”
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