Realtors Land Institute, the National Association of Realtors Research Group, and Acres released new data on May 3 highlighting key trends in the current land market. The latest Land Market Survey and research from Acres point to significant changes in farmland values based on quality ratings and other business management factors.
The report matters for farmers and investors because it reveals how external forces like energy prices, interest rates, and water security are shaping farmland values across major agricultural regions. These findings can influence decisions about land purchases, sales, or long-term planning.
Dr. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors, said that despite concerns about a U.S. recession due to oil price shocks and low consumer sentiment, “the U.S. economy is not on the brink of recession.” The survey found that ranch land led all categories with a 2.2% increase per acre for 2025. Industrial and recreational lands also posted gains of 1.9%. However, Oleh Sorokin said that while sales may strengthen in 2026, price growth is expected to slow for ranches to just under one percent per acre.
Aaron Shew, chief technology officer at Acres, addressed two notable farmland value shifts: “Tariffs are one that it’s kind of dwarfed now by the energy situation, but tariffs were a pretty big impact last year.” He added that ongoing conflicts affecting oil supply could have a large impact on farm balance sheets through fuel and fertilizer costs: “Some of the energy challenges that we’re undergoing with the war in Iran and the blockade…for farmland specifically…could have a pretty large impact.”
Shew identified a roughly ten percent pullback from peak Class A Midwest farmland prices seen between 2021–2022—especially in Iowa and Illinois—while Class B ground has been more resilient. In California’s Central Valley region he said water security is now responsible for half of permanent crop land’s value: “A lot of people are already talking about water regulations…permanent crops have been under duress for close to three years now.” For almonds specifically: “For Tier 1 districts…you’re looking at $30,000 plus an acre,” but outside those areas (“white space”), prices drop sharply as fields go fallow or are converted.
Programs such as Farmers Bridge Assistance help stabilize values by supporting operations during tough times; Shew said this support may be crucial if poor conditions persist into year three: “Farm operations can be poor for a year or two…but we’re on a third year of this…” He noted government policies remain key: “Government policies to provide support…help farmers get to the end of ‘26.” Transaction volumes nationally have returned to pre-pandemic levels though distress sales continue in California due to rising costs.
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