Grain markets saw sharp declines on Thursday morning, while cattle futures rallied and hogs experienced losses, according to a May 14 report. The drop in grains was linked to disappointment over the lack of agricultural purchase agreements following a summit with China.
Randy Martinson of Martinson Ag said, “Bessent came out with a comment earlier this morning and said that China’s needs are taken care of as far as the soybeans are concerned. And I think that really sent the shockwave through the soybeans starting that market to trend a little bit lower. That spilled over, you know, cotton was lower. And we’re also seeing it hit the corn and the wheat market as well.”
There were no additional purchases by China for old crop soybeans despite previous expectations based on President Trump’s February announcement about an extra 8 million metric tons. “We were hoping that we could see, you know, there was talk about that 8 million metric ton more… We were hoping that we would see at least a portion of that come for soybeans,” Martinson said. He added hope remains for a written agreement committing China to buying up to 25 million metric tons annually: “Now, Trump did invite China’s president to come to the U.S. in September… Maybe that’ll be a trade deal done there.”
Weekly export totals showed marketing year lows for old crop soybeans at only 3.8 million bushels; corn reached 27 million and wheat totaled 4.9 million bushels. Martinson said these numbers were disappointing: “Corn came in also at like a 14-week low or something like that… For corn and soybeans, we would like to continue to see that move forward.” He noted most anticipated new crop sales might not occur until August or September.
Meanwhile, July corn fell below its key moving average support level and July soybeans dropped under $12 per bushel after recent highs set Wednesday—a reversal described by Martinson as potentially signaling further weakness if trends continue: “We close below $12 and we don’t see the market pop above it again tomorrow… Then I think the party’s basically over for the growing season.”
In legislative news, the House passed an E15 bill allowing year-round ethanol blends; however, Martinson cautioned its impact on corn demand will take time: “A lot of plants are pushing capacity or close to it… It’s going to take awhile… I think we could get probably to an E12 or E13 as kind of be the national blend.” Soybean meal briefly rose after reports Europe rejected Argentine cargoes but quickly settled back.
Wheat prices remained under pressure despite USDA production cuts in hard red winter wheat crops—Martinson suggested further reductions may follow but doubted they would offset broader grain weakness.
Cattle futures moved higher with record cash trades reported between $260–$268 live and $405–$410 dressed in different regions: “Cash is king,” Martinson said regarding current market drivers.
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