The nation’s hard red winter wheat crop is nearing another disaster, with the United States Department of Agriculture reporting on Apr. 24 that only 30% of the crop is in good to excellent condition. This marks a decrease from last week, while 33% is rated poor to very poor.
This situation is significant because hard red winter wheat is a key component of the U.S. agricultural sector. The decline in crop quality could impact farmers’ incomes and grain supplies.
Drought remains the main factor behind these low ratings, currently affecting 68% of the crop. According to Justin Gilpin, CEO of Kansas Wheat, “We had a lot of optimism when this crop went in the ground in the fall… It just couldn’t get Mother Nature to cooperate with rains.” Gilpin said national averages are supported by better conditions for soft red and white winter wheat crops but noted that “if you break out this—just that hard red winter wheat portion… you’re looking at a hard red winter wheat number on that good-to-excellent rating at below 15%, which is… rivaling that very drought-devastated crop that we had in 2023, unfortunately.”
Freeze events have further harmed crops across several states from South Dakota to Texas. Drew Lerner, senior ag meteorologist with World Weather Inc., said, “The temperatures did drop into the teens and 20s across parts of Nebraska and northeast Colorado as well as northwestern Kansas,” raising concerns about additional damage after an earlier cold spell without snow cover.
Lerner also pointed out extreme temperature swings: “We’ve had a lot of 80- and 90-degree days and we keep bouncing back and forth between those temperatures and freezing.” While rain is forecasted soon for some regions, Lerner cautioned it may be too late for much benefit: “There will be some relief coming up, but it’s almost May and we’re going to start reproducing that crop pretty soon.”
State data show high percentages of HRW acres rated poor or very poor: Texas (55%), Nebraska (55%), Oklahoma (45%), Kansas (51%), Colorado (49%). Gilpin said abandonment rates could approach those seen in 2023 when Kansas left nearly one-third unharvested: “Historically… between that 5% to 6%. I would say we’re probably going to be closer to that 10% to 15% abandonment.” He added yields will likely drop by up to one-quarter compared with last year.
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