A new poll released on May 16 shows that four in ten agricultural producers are undecided or considering voting for a different party in the upcoming midterm elections. The survey, conducted by Amato Advisors and shared with Farm Journal readers, highlights frustrations over rising input costs, trade policies, and the lack of year-round E15 ethanol expansion among producers—many located in key battleground states.
The findings suggest that political loyalties among rural voters are shifting as they face economic pressures and feel disconnected from policymakers. Nearly half of those surveyed reported fair to poor finances, with a quarter fearing they may need to restructure or leave farming altogether. Rising input costs were identified as the top challenge facing operations.
Nicholas Jacobs with the Bram Public Policy Lab at Colby College said, “The frustration is not simply with ‘government.’ It is with a government that is too removed from the consequences it creates and poorly aligned with the realities of rural economies. When people feel squeezed while also believing elected officials do not understand their lives, that creates real political vulnerability heading into a midterm election.”
Mike Amato, founder of Amato Advisors and former official in both Biden-Harris and Obama-Biden administrations, said the disconnect applies to both parties: “[The results show] a strong signal of disconnect between what is happening on the land and what is happening in D.C.” According to Jessica Schulken from the Russell Group in Washington D.C., “That leaves a lot of rural America potentially up for grabs.”
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When asked about specific issues influencing their vote this year, nearly half cited year-round E15 approval as decisive. On Wednesday before publication date, Congress passed legislation allowing nationwide sales of gasoline containing 15% ethanol; however, its future remains uncertain pending Senate approval. Meanwhile Democrats have flipped two Iowa state Senate seats previously considered safe Republican districts.
Jacobs added perspective on broader implications: “Partisanship in rural America has become increasingly layered on top of older frustrations that predate any single administration or price fluctuation…dissatisfaction alone is often insufficient to fully reorder political loyalties.” As November approaches, Amato concluded: “Polls like this…can help close the gap so federal policy actually meets farmers where they are.”
