Soybean futures closed higher for the week ending May 8, with optimism growing over the upcoming meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi scheduled for May 14-15 in Beijing. July soybeans gained 4 ¾ cents, while November soybeans added 6 ¾ cents. In contrast, corn futures ended lower, with July down by 9 cents and December falling by 5 ¾ cents.
The rise in soybean prices is attributed to market anticipation that China may announce additional purchases of U.S. soybeans during the summit. Jerry Gulke, president of The Gulke Group, said the market expects further commitments beyond previous agreements made by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and statements from President Trump about China’s intentions to buy millions of metric tons of U.S. soybeans.
Gulke described Friday’s rally as impressive and noted that technical indicators were positive for soybeans. “November took out the March highs early this week, then backed off Wednesday and Thursday, then turned around and went back up again. So, it’s respecting new highs for May. That’s important. If you can stay above the April and March highs like we have and exceed it then you’re probably on to something that’s more long-term. We’ve done that in new crop,” he said.
While soybean markets showed strength, corn markets struggled amid reports of increased planting acres compared to earlier government projections. Gulke said his discussions with seed dealers suggested rumors about significant exchanges from corn to soybean seeds were not materializing: “There was a lot of talk about it, but he said nobody really did it in any significance…So apparently they found inputs.” He also mentioned fertilizer supplies remained available despite higher costs.
Managed money traders remain long in both corn and soybeans according to recent Commitment of Traders data from CFTC. Gulke remarked on this trend: “It’s very impressive…They did a huge, huge amount in new crop corn and corn and beans in general.” He added that large speculators tend to anticipate future moves rather than current positions: “The large spec is kind of like a hockey player that wants to shoot the puck or watch where he thinks the puck’s going to go…”
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