A recent survey by the American Farm Bureau Federation shows that about 70% of U.S. farmers cannot afford all the fertilizer they need this season, as reported on April 15. The findings come amid higher input costs driven by the ongoing war in Iran and a challenging farm economy, with more than 5,700 farmers responding between April 3 and April 11.
The affordability of fertilizer is a growing concern for producers across various regions and commodities. Faith Parum of the American Farm Bureau Federation said, “farmers in the Southern region reported the greatest difficulty securing fertilizer, with 78% unable to afford all needed inputs this season. Producers in the Northeast and West also reported significant challenges, with 69% and 66%, respectively, unable to afford all required fertilizer, compared to 48% in the Midwest.”
Parum also noted potential impacts on crop yields: “When producers cannot afford full fertilizer application rates, they may reduce nutrient use or shift acreage decisions, both of which increase the risk of lower yields and reduced production potential in the 2026 crop year.” She added that “affordability concerns are even more pronounced when viewed by commodity. More than 80% of rice, cotton and peanut producers reported they cannot afford all required fertilizer… Over half of all commodities report not being able to afford all fertilizer needs this year.”
Fertilizer prebooking rates varied widely by region according to Progressive Farmer’s Russ Quinn. He said Parum explained that Midwest corn and soybean growers had higher preordering rates—67% had already bought their supply—while only about one-third or fewer did so in other regions.
Long-term price pressures are expected due to infrastructure damage from conflict near Iran. Agri-Pulse’s Oliver Ward cited an NDSU analysis projecting urea prices could peak at $784 per short ton under contested conditions or rise as high as $996 if conflict continues through fall; even optimistic scenarios keep prices well above pre-crisis levels into at least late-2027.
Ward also said reports point to extensive damage at key petrochemical sites like Iran’s South Pars complex and Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility; “[I]f this damage assessment is accurate, the pre‐crisis pricing environment is unlikely to return before 2028,” according to analysis authors.
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