The United States Department of Agriculture announced on May 12 that U.S. farmers are expected to harvest their smallest wheat crop since 1972, as a severe drought in the U.S. Plains has reduced production of hard red winter wheat, the country’s largest variety.
This development is significant for the agricultural sector because it highlights how weather conditions and rising input costs are impacting major crop yields and farm economics. The USDA’s first official forecast for the 2026/27 crop season also indicates that while soybean production will be near record highs, corn output is projected to decline by six percent from last year.
Rising fuel and fertilizer prices—driven by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—have sharply increased grain production costs. These challenges come at a time when American farmers are already facing economic strain from trade disruptions related to ongoing tariff disputes. The USDA said, “U.S. growers expanded plantings of soybeans, which require less fertilizer than grains like corn and wheat.” Winter wheat was already planted before recent geopolitical tensions began, but soaring fertilizer prices limited spring nutrient applications for both winter wheat and other crops such as corn and soybeans.
The USDA estimated total U.S. wheat production for the upcoming season at 1.561 billion bushels, down from last year’s 1.985 billion bushels—a drop attributed mainly to a projected twenty-five percent reduction in hard red winter wheat yields due to drought conditions in key growing regions. Benchmark futures prices for both hard red winter and soft red winter wheats rose by their daily trading limits following these projections.
For soybeans, growers are expected to harvest about 4.435 billion bushels this year—up from last year’s figure but slightly below market expectations—with exports potentially affected by lower Chinese demand amid ongoing trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.According to AgWeb, industry news sources provide essential updates on commodity markets and farming strategies during such volatile periods.
AgWeb functions as a subsidiary of Farm Journal and reaches agriculture professionals through online content featuring leadership programs, community advocacy initiatives, awards like Top Producer Awards, conservation partnerships with organizations such as the American Soybean Association, as well as educational resources designed to improve agricultural practices,according to AgWeb.
