Mary Pat Campbell, Vice President of Insurance Research for Conning, said on Feb. 11, 2026, that she has encountered disagreements with public pension actuaries over the financial assumptions used in government retirement systems.
The debate centers on how public pension plans calculate their long-term obligations and the risks associated with assuming governments will always remain operational. This issue affects taxpayers and retirees as it influences funding decisions and the stability of pension systems.
“And I got into arguments with public pension actuaries… It was very theoretical… And one of the retorts they had was that government doesn’t go out of business,” Campbell said according to her Substack post reflecting on more than a decade of analysis. She described early disputes when questioning high discount rates—around 8 percent—used for valuing liabilities, noting that actuaries often responded by emphasizing government’s enduring nature compared to private sector constraints. This perspective has informed her ongoing critiques of public pension funding practices.
Public pension plans applied discount rates averaging 7 percent in 2023 based on expected returns, differing from private plans using market rates near 4 percent, resulting in liabilities undersaid by trillions, as calculated by the Hoover Institution. This method has contributed to persistent underfunding in states like Illinois and New Jersey. Private plans adjust reserves immediately to reflect market conditions under federal regulations.
State pension funded ratios stood at 74 percent on average for fiscal year 2022, with variations such as Kentucky below 60 percent due to contribution shortfalls and investment assumptions, according to Pew Charitable Trusts data. Reforms in places like Wisconsin maintained higher ratios through consistent funding. Private insurers enforce full liability coverage to prevent taxpayer exposure seen in public systems.
Nationally, public pension unfunded liabilities exceeded $1.3 trillion in 2023 when valued at market rates, surpassing official reports by significant margins, according to Hoover Institution estimates. Global examples include the UK’s handling of underfunded plans through hybrid models balancing risks; private annuities require ongoing adjustments to ensure solvency without external bailouts.
Campbell holds degrees in mathematics and physics from North Carolina State University and a master’s degree in mathematics from New York University. She began actuarial work at TIAA in 2003, became a Fellow of the Society of Actuaries in 2007, and joined Conning in 2014.
