Prairie State Wire

A mass exodus from Illinois, which accelerated in 2014, has resulted in the state losing a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives from the 2020 census, according to a public policy official.

“We've had a steadily increasing out-migration,” Bryce Hill, senior research analyst with the Illinois Policy Institute, told the Prairie State Wire. “We were losing 40,000 to 60,000 residents a year and that number has crept up into six-figure territory in some recent years but then the main driver as to why it's starting to result in population decline is because there are fewer births and more deaths."

Although the Wall Street Journal reported this week that, due to the new census numbers, political districts will be redrawn based on the remaining residents, Bryce foresees a Republican district being carved up and redistributed among the 17 new districts, as opposed to the previous 18.

Bryce Hill | Submitted

“The state of Illinois will have less influence in Washington just from having one less representative and then, within the state, in terms of who makes it to Washington, it’s more likely to impact the Republican Party and Republican voters,” Hill said in an interview.

This trend is bolstered by North American Van Lines moving company data indicating that Illinois leads the nation with respect to population loss in 2020.

Hill blames rising taxes, with Motley Fool reporting that Illinois is among states with the highest effective tax rate at more than 2%.

“In the past seven years, the Census Bureau has projected that the Illinois population has been declining," he said. "It's high property taxes that make what should be relatively affordable housing unaffordable and high-income taxes have made the state's business environment less friendly for people looking to invest and people looking to create jobs statewide. So, those labor market outcomes have also been struggling.”

U-Haul ranks Illinois as the fourth-highest state to lose population in 2020 and as the third most-outbound state in the nation, with nearly two residents leaving for every one person moving in.

“The natural increase in the growth of the population eases budget constraints on a state and it results in natural revenue increases and without population growth, tax rates are going to be rising when there needs to be some sort of reduction on the spending side,” Hill said.

If Illinois would have maintained population growth on pace with the rest of the nation since 2007, Illinois Policy Institute data suggests that its economy would be $78 billion larger today. 

“That would have generated an expected $3.5 billion more in state tax revenues without having to raise tax rates,” Hill added.

The wealthiest residents are the most likely to leave, according to the 2020 United Van Lines study, and the top reasons for people leaving Illinois include lifestyle and retirement.

"The people who are the largest chunk of those leaving are actually prime working-age individuals," Hill said. "So, the people between the ages of 25 and 54, they're the drivers of this mass exodus. They're looking for a more affordable lifestyle someplace where their dollar might go farther and places that offer more job opportunities and growth for them. That's the number one reason why people, in particular, the prime working-age population, is leaving."