SPRINGFIELD – The political obituaries for Mike Madigan may well be premature.
Don’t be surprised if come January he rises Lazarus-like from his civic grave to be elected to another term as speaker of the House.
That’s not a prediction. It’s more a statement of political reality in Illinois: expect anything.
After all, no state – or federal -- legislative leader in the history of the United States has led a chamber longer than Madigan.
His secret? He is void of any deep-seeded political principle – other than winning.
Over the years, he’s been both pro-life and pro-choice. He railed against Rod Blagojevich’s dishonesty. Then he co-chaired his re-election campaign. And then he led the charge to have him impeached.
Some years, he has been a bust-the-bank, big-spending liberal. Other years he plays the role of the fiscal conservative. Republicans and Democrats alike scratch their heads, wondering where in the political spectrum he will land.
Today, he is in more political danger than at any time in his political career, which spans half a century. He has been speaker of the House for all but two years since 1983.
Members of his caucus began to openly turn on Madigan during the summer, after the inquiry into influence peddling by the behemoth electric utility Commonwealth Edison came to light. But things began to really unravel last week after two ComEd executives and lobbyist with a close friendship with Madigan were indicted.
So far, 18 Democrats have announced they will not support reelecting Madigan as Speaker in January. This presumably leaves him with 55 votes – five short -- of the 60 needed to retain his leadership post.
Despite the apparent vote shortfall. Madigan issued this statement Friday, “The decision on the next speaker of the Illinois House will be made at a caucus, after a full discussion of the issues facing our state and the qualifications of the candidates. I plan to be a candidate for speaker, and today I confirmed that I continue to have support from a significant number of House Democratic caucus members.”
And there is the rub. He may lack the votes to at least initially get himself elected, but with the support he does have, he could effectively deny anyone else the post.
At a time when the state is in a fiscal crisis and bearing the brunt of a deadly pandemic, the House could be at loggerheads over who will lead it for the next two years.
“It would be very difficult for any of those members who have publicly said they won’t support Madigan to change their position,” said Charles Wheeler III, a longtime statehouse reporter and retired journalism professor at the University of Illinois-Springfield.
Any flip-flopper would almost certainly draw a challenger in the next primary or general election.
But if it becomes a prolonged battle to elect a speaker, some of those who defected from the Madigan camp may be lured back just to end the nightmare of a deadlocked House. For example, in 1975, it took three weeks and 93 votes of the Illinois House before Bill Redmond was elected Speaker.
If such a marathon election were to happen again, some members might abandon their publicly stated positions just to bring the acrimony to an end.
I don’t see Madigan leaving the Speakership with out a fight. During the past half century, he has repeatedly reinvented himself. When he was first elected to Springfield, he was a law-and-order Democrat. Later he voted to abolish the death penalty.
He earned a reputation as a fierce ally of the trial lawyers. But he shoved a medical malpractice reform measure through the House over their objection, when he perceived it would benefit his caucus.
Organized labor has long adored Madigan, but that didn’t prevent him from forcing through a pension reform measure over their strenuous objections.
His only consistent principle is that Democrats should control the House and he should be speaker.
Even love couldn’t dislodge him from the post he holds.
In early 2013, his daughter, Lisa, was considering a run for governor and raising campaign money for such a bid. Then in July of that year she announced she would instead seek a fourth term as attorney general rather than challenge then-Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn.
"I feel strongly that the state would not be well-served by having a governor and speaker of the House from the same family and have never planned to run for governor if that would be the case," she said in a statement. "With Speaker Madigan planning to continue in office, I will not run for governor."
The following month Mike Madigan told reporters, "Lisa and I had spoken about that on several occasions, and she knew very well that I did not plan to retire."
"She knew what my position was," he said. "She knew."
So, if he wouldn’t retire as speaker to help his own daughter, don’t expect him to call it quits to help his own party.
We’re in for a fight.
Scott Reeder is a veteran statehouse journalist and a freelance reporter. ScottReeder1965@gmail.com.
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