More people have been moving to red states from blue states. | Wikimedia Commons / Tdorante10
More people have been moving to red states from blue states. | Wikimedia Commons / Tdorante10
The multi-year pattern of population growth among the nation’s big red states – and shrinkage among the big blue – continued in 2023.
The deep-red states of Texas and Florida grew their populations by more than 470,000 and 365,000 respectively while red North Carolina grew by nearly 140,000. In all, the three grew by nearly 1 million people. These states remain a magnet for both Americans and foreigners alike.
Meanwhile, deep-blue New York, California and Illinois, are only driving more Americans away. New York and California, lost 102,000 and 75,000 people respectively while Illinois lost another 32,000. The combined loss totaled more than 210,000.
These findings are based on a Wirepoints’ analysis of the latest 2023 population estimates provided by the U.S. Census Bureau on December 22. The bureau performs a population estimate each year in addition to its full decennial census count at the end of each decade.
A look at percentage growth/decline
The nation’s winners and losers on a percentage basis are similar to those listed above. New York was the biggest loser, with more than 0.5 percent of its population disappearing between 2022 and 2023. Louisiana and Hawaii were next with declines of about 0.3 percent. Illinois, West Virginia, and California followed.
On the flip side, South Carolina, Florida and Texas all experienced population gains above 1.5 percent, with South Carolina’s 1.71 percent increase being the nation’s big winner.
The three-year trend
The divide between the nation’s winners and losers is even more pronounced when adding up changes over the post-decennial 2020-2023 period.
Both Texas and Florida have added more than one million in population – no other states come close. They’re near the top on a percentage basis too. Idaho’s population has grown 6.2 percent since 2020, followed by Florida and South Carolina up 4.7 percent and Texas at 4.3 percent.
In contrast, both California and New York have each seen their populations shrink by over 500,000 and Illinois has lost nearly a quarter-million people – the nation’s third-worst decline.
On a percentage basis, Illinois’ 1.9 percent loss comes only 2nd behind New York, which has lost 2.7 percent of its population since 2000.
The single biggest driver of population changes among the 50 states continues to be domestic migration – the movement of Americans from one state to another.
Florida was the nation’s top destination state between 2020 and 2023, with a net 757,000 people deciding to make the Sunshine State their home. Texas was next, with a net migration of nearly 603,000 Americans.
California suffered the most in the country with more than 1.1 million net people deciding to leave. New York and Illinois were the runners-up, with losses of nearly 810,000 and 342,000 people, respectively.
Another round of winners and losers
2023 was a year of “returning to norms” after years of pandemic chaos, according to the Census Bureau.
Those norms are clear: Deep-red Texas and Florida, along with states like the Carolinas, are winning the competition for people and their wealth. And they have been for more than a decade.
In contrast, blue states like New York, California and Illinois are structural losers – bleeding domestic migrants and seeing their populations shrink.
One set of states is rapidly garnering increased advantages in both economic investment and political influence. The other set is losing, badly.
Appendix.
U.S. Census Population Data 2020-2023
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