Prairie State Wire

Sheila Weinberg, founder and CEO of Truth in Accounting, said on the Prairie State Wire Podcast that federal budget surplus narratives have misled the public by masking rising national debt and long-term fiscal obligations.

"I started actually on the federal side when I realized that the federal government was just not producing financial data that allowed citizens to be knowledgeable participants in their governments," said Weinberg, Founder CEO. "It started over the infamous surpluses and we had those as far as the eye could see. But they were going into debt at the same time."

Recent debates in Washington highlight whether reporting a federal budget "surplus" is misleading if overall national debt still rises due to interest costs and off-budget liabilities. According to Bruegel, some lawmakers argue that focusing only on the surplus or deficit obscures long-term solvency issues, while others emphasize the political value of showing a balanced budget. This dispute has intensified around new fiscal proposals like the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," with critics warning that official narratives understate structural deficits.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects the federal deficit in fiscal year 2025 will reach about $1.9 trillion, while debt held by the public is expected to climb toward 156 percent of GDP by 2055. These projections illustrate the persistent mismatch between federal revenues and spending, even outside of recessionary periods. As reported by the CBO and summarized by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, such debt levels would be the highest in U.S. history.

In the late 1990s, the U.S. experienced rare federal surpluses, peaking at $236.2 billion in 2000 and followed by $128 billion in 2001. According to historical budget data reported by the Clinton administration and cited by Wikipedia, those surpluses briefly slowed growth in the national debt as a share of GDP. However, by the early 2000s, deficits reemerged, and the debt-to-GDP ratio began climbing again, reversing the fiscal gains of the surplus era.

Weinberg is also noted for founding Truth in Accounting in 2002 to promote transparency in government finances. According to her biography on Truth in Accounting's website, she is a certified public accountant who began her career in public accounting and consulting and has worked with organizations like the Concord Coalition on fiscal responsibility issues. She earned her Bachelor of Accounting degree from the University of Denver and became a CPA in 1981.

Truth in Accounting is based in Illinois and operates as a nonpartisan nonprofit dedicated to providing transparent financial information about federal, state, and local governments. According to its official website, its mission is to educate citizens about fiscal realities through reports such as the Financial State of the States and Financial State of the Union. The group evaluates budgets and balance sheets to highlight unfunded liabilities and promote accountability.