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Prairie State Wire

Thursday, November 21, 2024

2018 election night preview: More competitive races now in play than in 2014

Illinois

Unlike the dynamic four years ago, a majority of the Illinois House races – 56 percent – will be competitive contests pitting major party candidates during the Nov. 6 midterm election.

The Democratic and Republican parties will be fielding candidates in 66 of the 118 House districts this year, compared to just 50 contests in 2014, increasing the chances of a shake-up in the Illinois House of Representatives.

All told, the number of state Senate and House districts pitting Democrats against Republicans is 85 this year, compared to just 57 in 2014. Competitive districts in the state Senate number 19 this year, compared to just seven four years ago.

During the last midterm election in 2014, most of the Illinois state legislative races had predetermined outcomes, with a dozen state House races pitting major-party candidates who ran neck-and-neck in the home stretch.

All 118 House seats are on the Nov. 6 ballot this year, as they were four years ago. In 2014, 27 Republicans ran unopposed in House districts, while 41 Democrats ran without major-party opposition. So 68 of the districts – 58 percent – were essentially decided before any votes were cast.

But in the 12 House districts with tight races, the margin of victory for the winning candidates was about 3,000 votes or less. In the remaining 38 contested House district races in 2014, either the Democrat or the Republican won handily.

In the state Senate, where 19 seats were on the ballot four years ago, seven Democrats and five Republicans ran unopposed, leaving only seven districts where major-party candidates ran head-to-head. The victors in these races tended to win by comfortable margins, with one exception in the 57th Senate District.

All told, 3,136,641 votes were cast in House races four years ago, with 50.2 percent of the vote going to Republicans and 49.8 percent going to Democrats. And Illinois residents cast 1,045,787 votes in the state Senate races, with Republicans capturing 54.4 percent and Democrats receiving 45.6 percent.

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2014 Illinois House race results

DistrictRepublican candidateDemocratic candidateVotes castWinner
1

Daniel J. Burke11,710Burke
2 Edward J. Acevedo12,081Acevedo
3

Luis Arroyo11,948Arroyo
4

Cynthia Soto15,342Soto
5Collin JohnsonKenneth Dunkin4,715 (R)

22,440 (D)

Dunkin
6

Esther Golar19,159 (D)Golar
7

Emanuel Welch26,839 (D)Welch
8

La Shawn Ford25,449 (D)Ford
9

Arthur Turner20,890 (D)Turner
10Mark CalonderPamela Reaves-Harris3,638 (R)

21,102 (D)

Reaves-Harris
11

Ann Williams22,562 (D)Wiliams
12

Sara Feigenholtz25,512 (D)Feigenholtz
13

Gregory Harris22,632 (D)Harris
14Denis DetzelKelly Cassidy3,498 (R)

23,456 (D)

Cassidy
15Gregory BedellJohn D'Amico9,967 (R)

16,433 (D)

D'Amico
16

Lou Lang17,426 (D)Lang
17Kathleen MyallsLaura Fine15,534 (R)

21,809 (D)

Fine
18

Robyn Gabel28,256 (D)Gabel
19

Robert Martwick18,567 (D)Martwick
20Michael McAuliffeMo Khan18,879 (R)

11,354 (D)

McAuliffe
21

Silvana Tabares10,725 (D)Tabares
22

Michael Madigan16,956 (D)Madigan
23

Michael Zalewski13,244 (D)Zalewski
24

Elizabeth Hernandez12,382 (D)Hernandez
25

Barbara Currie24810 (D)Currie
26Jacob HakalirChristian Mitchell5,083 (R)

25,715 (D)

Mitchell
27

Monique Davis25,715 (D)Davis
28

Robert Rita26,395 (D)Rita
29

Thaddeus Jones27,637 (D)Jones
30

William David21,157 (D)David
31

Mary Flowers26,394 (D)Flowers
32

Andre Thapedi19,828 (D)Thapedi
33

Marcus Evans Jr.28,090 (D)Evans
34Mark EkhoffElgie Sims Jr.8,795 (R)

26,098 (D)

Sims
35Victor HorneFrances Ann Hurley12,927 (R)

25,205 (D)

Hurley
36

Kelly Burke25,443 (D)Burke
37Margo McDermedNichole Serbin26,168 (R)

11,797 (D)

McDermed
38Anthony GranataAl Riley8,369 (R)

26,559 (D)

Riley
39

Will Guzzardi14,644 (D)Guzzardi
40

Jaime Andrade Jr.14,861 (D)Andrade
41Grant WehrliEd Agustin24,447 (R)

11,690 (D)

Wehrli
42Jeanne Ives

31,643 (R)Ives
43Jeffrey MeyerAnna Moeller5,827 (R)

8,767 (D)

Moeller
44Ramiro JuarezFred Crespo8,866 (R)

10,715 (D)

Crespo
45Christine WingerJenny Burke17,420 (R)

14,581 (D)

Winger
46Heidi HolanDeb Conroy11,542 (R)

12,774 (D)

Conroy
47Patricia Bellock

33,460 (R)Bellock
48Peter Breen

28,711 (R)Breen
49Mike Fortner

24,482 (R)Fortner
50Keith WheelerValerie Burd23,260 (R)

11,007 (D)

Wheeler
51Ed Sullivan Jr.

33,896 (R)Sullivan
52David McSweeneyBill Downs22,676 (R)

9,911 (D)

McSweeney
53David Harris

27097 (R)Harris
54Tom MorrisonLaddi Singh21,973 (R)

11,360 (D)

Morrison
55Mel ThillensMartin Moylan13,647 (R)

15,209 (D)

Moylan
56Jim MoynihanMichelle Mussman13,592 (R)

14,405 (D)

Mussman
57Bill GrossiElaine Nekritz11,082 (R)

14,376 (D)

Nekritz
58Mark NeerhofScott Drury16,895 (R)

20,252 (D)

Drury
59Leslie MungerCarol Sente13,179 (R)

14,528 (D)

Sente
60

Rita Mayfield11,476 (D)Mayfield
61Sheri JesielLoren Karner17,706 (R)

12,811 (D)

Jesiel
62Rod DrobinskiSam Yingling12,789 (R)

13,910 (D)

Yingling
63Steven ReickJack Franks12,938 (R)

18,271 (D)

Franks
64Barbara WheelerJoel Mains23,189 (R)

10,275 (D)

Wheeler
65Steven Andersson

29,808 (R)Andersson
66Michael Tryon

23,957 (R)Tryon
67

Litesa Wallace14,398 (D)Wallace
68John Cabello

27,855 (R)Cabello
69Joe Sosnowski

28,792 (R)Sosnowski
70Robert Pritchard

25,556 (R)Pritchard
71Jim WozniakMike Smiddy17,233 (R)

17,547 (D)

Smiddy
72

Patrick Verschoore24,331 (D)Verschoore
73David Leitch

33,667 (R)Leitch
74Donald Moffitt

35,013 (R)Moffitt
75John AnthonyMartha Shugart19,618 (R)

14,231 (D)

Anthony
76Jerry Lee LongFrank Mautino17,072 (R)

17,409 (D)

Mautino
77

Kathleen Willis12,488 (D)Willis
78

Camille Lilly26,182 (D)Lilly
79Glenn NixonKatherine Cloonen16,240 (R)

16,362 (D)

Cloonen
80

Anthony DeLuca26,173 (D)DeLuca
81Ron SandackElizabeth Chaplin22,788 (R)

15,199 (D)

Sandack
82

Jim Durkin32,968 (R)Durkin
83

Linda Chapa LaVia11,477 (D)Chapa LaVia
84Krishna BansalStephanie Kifowit9,068 (R)

12,598 (D)

Kifowit
85

Emily McAsey20,598 (D)McAsey
86Diane HarrisLawrence Walsh Jr.8,810 (R)

16,408 (D)

Walsh
87Rich Brauer

31,616 (R)Brauer
88Keith Sommer

30,255 (R)Sommer
89Brian Stewart

29,928 (R)Stewart
90Tom Demmer

28,668 (R)Demmer
91Michael UnesChad Schmidgall20,309 (R)

10,130 (D)

Unes
92

Jehan Gordon-Booth20559 (D)Gordon-Booth
93Norine Hammond

25,994 (R)Hammond
94Randy Frese

30,899 (R)Frese
95Wayne Rosenthal

29,177 (R)Rosenthal
96Michael BellSue Scherer12,294 (R)

15,153 (D)

Scherer
97Mark BatinickMoira Dunn18,407 (R)

13,928 (D)

Batinick
98Yvonne BoltonNatalie Manley10,992 (R)

17,520 (D)

Manley
99Raymond Poe

37,596 (R)Poe
100Christopher DavidsmeyerJosh Evans24,481 (R)

12,725 (D)

Davidsmeyer
101Bill Mitchell

36,114 (R)Mitchell
102Adam BrownMatt Forcum27,103 (R)

9,294 (D)

Brown
103Kristin WilliamsonCarol Ammons8,392 (R)

13,362 (D)

Ammons
104Chad Hays

26,069 (R)Hays
105Dan Brady

28,373 (R)Brady
106Thomas BennettWilliam Nutter26,349 (R)

6,516 (D)

Bennett
107John CavalettoJohn Berger23,308 (R)

10,012 (D)

Cavaletto
108Charlie Meier

32,836 (R)Meier
109David Reis

32,552 (R)Reis
110Reginald Phillips

26,693 (R) Phillips
111

Daniel Beiser22,855 (D)Beiser
112Dwight KayCullen L. Cullen18,984 (R)

13,333 (D)

Kay
113Melinda HultJay Hoffman11,941 (R)

17,572 (D)

Hoffman
114

Eddie Lee Jackson21,435 (D)Jackson
115Terri BryantWilliam Kilquist21,319 (R)

13,649 (D)

Bryant
116

Jerry Costello II27,910 (D)Costello
117

John Bradley25,658 (D)Bradley
118

Brandon Phelps25,661 (D)Phelps

2014 Illinois Senate race results

DistrictRepublican candidateDemocratic candidateVotes castWinner
3

Mattie Hunter43,662 (D)Hunter
6Stefanie LinaresJohn Cullerton20,291 (R)

39,851 (D)

Cullerton
9

Daniel Biss55,986 (D)Biss
12

Steven Landek24,886 (D)Landek
15

Napoleon Harris49,577 (D)Harris
18Shaun ColinBill Cunningham29,658 (R)

41,515 (D)

Cunningham
21Michael Connelly

61,393 (R)Connelly
24Chris NyboSuzanne Glowiak47,590 (R)

31,357 (D)

Nybo
27Matt Murphy

55,928 (R)Murphy
30Don WilsonTerry Link18,169 (R)

26,387 (D)

Link
33Karen McConnaughay

54,102 (R)McConnaughay
36Neil AndersonMike Jacobs35,895 (R)

30,242 (D)

Anderson
39

Don Harmon39,526 (D)Harmon
42

Linda Holmes28,358 (D)Holmes
45Tim Bivins

59,865 (R)Bivins
48Linda LittleAndy Manar27,449 (R)

34,402 (D)

Manar
51Chapin Rose

69,665 (R)Rose
54Kyle McCarter

60,923 (R)McCarter
57Katherine RuoccoJames Clayborne Jr.28,486 (R)

30,624 (D)

Clayborne

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