Prairie State Wire

A study by a pair of University of Chicago researchers estimates that social distancing could ultimately save the country as much as $8 trillion.

With the COVID-19 crisis showing few signs of easing, researchers Michael Greenstone and Vishan Nigam offered their projections based on a simulation of the spread of the deadly virus. That model, from Imperial College London, projects social distancing could save 1.7 million lives in the United States between March 1 and Oct. 1.

Researchers add in terms of mortality benefits that equates to somewhere in the neighborhood of $60,000 per household or upwards of $8 trillion overall.

In the end, the robust estimates equate to more than one-third of the U.S. gross domestic product and easily top the current federal budget. Researchers argue the benefits of social distancing don’t end there, pointing out how such practices could prove beneficial in reducing the spread of other illnesses and diseases.

As for the level of guesswork that goes into their analyses, both Greenstone and Nigam argue that it’s only because there’s currently a lack of hard data to calculate.

“While it is tempting to undertake a full cost-benefit analysis of social distancing, this would require reliable estimates of its substantial costs,” they wrote. “We are unaware of comprehensive estimates of these costs, and their development is beyond the scope of our analysis, so the paper cannot go further than developing an estimate of the gross benefits of social distancing.”