Prairie State Wire

Florian Sohnke, founder of the Chicago Contrarian, said that Chicago is facing severe fiscal instability driven by deep debt and a projected billion-dollar deficit. He made this statement on the Prairie State Wire Podcast.

"Chicago has got three very deep public finance problems," said Sohnke. "They've got deep debt. The city of Chicago is facing around a $1.1 billion deficit. We are way underwater."

Recent reports highlight Chicago’s mounting fiscal stress, with a nearly $982.4 million budget shortfall projected for fiscal year 2025 alongside a lingering $222.9 million gap in FY2024. According to the Civic Federation, the city contends with structural deficits driven by rising personnel, pension, and non-personnel costs, without the buffer of federal pandemic aid. These fiscal challenges persist despite passing the FY2025 budget, which the Civic Federation warns fails to rectify underlying imbalances, leading to a January 2025 credit downgrade.

The current projected deficit for Chicago’s 2025 budget stands at approximately $982.4 million, according to the city’s FY2025 budget forecast released in August 2024. A similar figure—$982.4 million—was reiterated at the introduction of the proposed FY2025 budget in November 2024. This near-billion-dollar gap significantly exceeds the ongoing FY2024 shortfall and marks one of the largest fiscal challenges the city has faced since the pandemic.

Chicago’s total net debt jumped from $22 billion in FY2014 to $29.2 billion in FY2023, a 32.8 percent increase, with per capita debt rising from $8,166 to $10,642. Simultaneously, pension liabilities reached an unfunded $33.9 billion against only $10.8 billion in assets, resulting in a puny 24 percent funding ratio—one of the worst nationwide. The city’s annual pension debt increased by $1.8 billion in 2023 alone, reaching $37.2 billion.

Sohnke is not only the founder but also serves as lead editor of Chicago Contrarian, which he launched in August 2019. As a freelance speechwriter, writer, and researcher based in Chicago, he authors analysis on city governance, policing, and education—most recently publishing works on violence interruption groups and police strategies. His role positions him as a prominent contrarian voice challenging mainstream municipal policies.

The Chicago Contrarian is a local commentary site aimed at offering unconventional perspectives on Chicago’s political, economic, and social issues. According to its "About" page, the publication seeks to challenge "the existing state of affairs in Chicago and its determined defenders" by delivering fresh analysis across topics like governance, crime, and education. Its audience includes civic-minded readers and opinion leaders seeking alternative viewpoints on Windy City policies.